Amid the War’s Uncertainty, This Trade Stands Out

Is the war over?

It’s too early to tell, but the market is pricing it in.

Or, at the very least, the market is betting that the fighting stays localized and doesn’t spread into a wider regional conflict. The S&P 500 is up about 1% and the price of crude oil is in freefall, down about 6%.

It looks like not a lot has actually changed. The Iranian regime is s…