What Airline Earnings Say About the American Consumer
For the top tier of income earners — and those who own significant assets — life has never been better. The stock market is hitting new all-time highs, and the explosion in property prices since the pandemic has been a windfall.
But for younger and working class Americans, it’s a very different story. Incomes haven’t kept up with inflation, and high prices and high interest rates have largely kept them from getting a toehold on the economic ladder.
Need proof?
Look at airline results. “Premium” airlines that cater to wealthier and business travels are thriving. Those that cater to a budget consumer are bleeding.
LikeFolio’s Megan Brantley breaks down the data, and it’s telling. Delta and United are minting money. Southwest Airlines? Not so much.
I’ve edited Brantley’s analysis slightly for brevity. Enjoy!
The Sky-High Divide
If you want to understand the state of the American consumer as we march into 2026, we’ve spotted a very clear picture.
Just look at the tarmac.
There is a widening chasm in this country between the “Haves” and the “Have-Nots,” and it has created a radical bifurcation in the airline industry – which is truly a great proxy for the consumer at large.
While budget/economy carriers are bleeding cash and fighting over the scraps of the price-sensitive traveler, two giants have essentially seceded from the pack: Delta Air Lines (DAL) and United Airlines (UAL).
For the last year, these two have traded in near-lockstep, both hitting 52-week highs as they corner the market on premium travel.
But as Delta prepares to kick off earnings next week, we’re answering some critical questions:
Does it still hold a unique, “niche” edge in this high-stakes war for the wealthy?
And is it enough to send the stock higher?
Here’s what we think…
Delta remains the “blue chip” benchmark for premium execution.
The financial gap between the “Big Two” and everyone else is staggering. In the first nine months of 2025:
Delta (DAL) pulled in a massive $3.79 billion in profit.
United (UAL) followed closely with $2.31 billion.
To put that in perspective, they aren’t just beating Southwest and American—they are operating in a different stratosphere.
Why?
Because they both stopped chasing the “Coach” customer and started building fortresses for the affluent.
Delta’s high-end revenue (First Class, Delta One, and Comfort+) recently jumped 9% to $5.8 billion, while Main Cabin revenue actually fell 4%.
United is mirroring this success.
In Q3, United’s premium revenue rose 6% YoY, and its premium cabin unit revenue outperformed the main cabin by a significant 5 points.
The “Haves” are not just flying; they are prioritizing the entire experience.
And this includes business travelers.
United logged its highest business revenue ticketing week ever in the first week of October 2025, proving that the corporate “Have” is back in force and willing to pay record fares.
The War of Amenities
Both carriers are treating amenities as revenue engines rather than costs:
The Connectivity Race: While Delta boasts “Fast Free Wi-Fi” on nearly 1,000 aircraft, United is countering with a $1 billion Starlink rollout. United’s Wi-Fi will be free for all MileagePlus members, with more than half of their regional fleet already equipped and a full fleet-wide rollout expected by 2027.
The Fleet Arms Race: United and Delta are locked in a battle to modernize the Hard Product in 2026. United has invested $1.6 billion into its United Next retrofits, reaching 64% of its fleet with signature interiors and 146,000+ seatback screens. Delta is countering with its own multi-billion dollar Next-Gen Cabin rollout, featuring 4K HDR displays and a new color palette. Delta is also deploying a “first-class-heavy” A321neo sub-fleet with 44 premium seats—the most in its domestic history—specifically to dominate high-yield transcontinental routes.
The Experience Premium: United’s food spend is up 25% this year, and their club investment is expected to more than double in 2026. This matches Delta’s JFK, LAX, and Seattle “Delta One” lounge expansions.
Operational Alpha: Yield Protection for 2026
Both carriers are making strategic choices to protect their margins from the volatility of the “Have-Not” market.
United is leaning into scarcity.
For 2026, it is ending the summer schedule early, flying fewer redeyes, and cutting capacity around the July 4 holiday. This strategic move starves the market of discount seats and forces unit revenue higher during peak travel periods.
Delta is doubling down on Ground-to-Air exclusivity. Its strategy focuses on the entire travel ribbon, not just the flight. This includes:
Premium Real Estate: Opening dedicated Delta One Lounges in JFK, LAX, Boston, and Seattle, with exclusive Delta One check-in hubs at all major airports by year-end.
Paid Upgrades over Elite Freebies: Delta expanded Comfort+ seating specifically because these seats were selling out early in the booking curve. By increasing the size of these cabins, they are effectively shifting the business model away from free upgrades for elites toward paid guaranteed luxury at the time of booking.
Operational Consistency: Delta maintains an ~81% on-time arrival rate by refusing to over-schedule their hubs. This reliability acts as a primary retention tool for corporate Haves who cannot afford schedule volatility.
The Bottom Line: Cautiously Bullish
The market has finally caught on to the Premium Play, and both DAL and UAL have been rewarded with 6-month rallies: +44%.
United is a formidable challenger, using scale, international dominance (nearly 40% of revenue), and the massive Starlink/A321 rollout to capture the high-end market. Delta, however, retains the “niche” edge in brand loyalty and domestic operational consistency.
Our Take: Own the Duopoly. United has the traffic momentum and the aggressive fleet reconfiguration, but Delta has the brand discipline that makes it the premium benchmark. Watch the premium margin guidance next week—in a world of Haves and Have-Nots, these are the only two seats at the table.